Thursday, October 27, 2011

Market Timing Update (10/27/11)

[EOD] Stocks -
The higher high in NDX presents initial challenges to the bearish count (lower low to come), unless a small wedge is tracing out to complete a double zigzag since the Aug 22nd low (Chart 1).

The structure in INDU since the Oct low is telling. today's high is likely either [iii] of C/3 or end of C/3 (Chart 2).

Finally, a look at the VIX (Chart 3).
[2pm] Transports update -
as mentioned before, expanded EDT or a regular five, chart refreshed

[120pm] NQ/NDX update -
New high in NQ within sight unless a short wedge to complete a double "zigzag" from the Aug 22nd low.
[1140am] DAX, INDU update -
DAX - gunning for 0.618 retrace, end of a five-up (A/1, blue) or C of an expanded flat (red) when done.
INDU - above SMA200, C-up or 3-up. See squiggles since the low on the 2nd chart below under the 912am entry.
[912am] USD update -
DX has retraced around 70% of its recent advance. Overall, it's an ABC structure from its nominal low so far.

[855am] Futures update -
Higher highs in ES and YM overnight, but NQ did not manage, yet.
As in DAX (745am entry below), there's no (w1/w4) overlap in YM and INDU, so is the latest surge a small-degree 3rd wave or 5th wave? 5th waves are often fickle. We'll see.
Yesterday's low is now a key pivot. Approaching SMA200 in SPX today (INDU has touched three days ago). See charts.

[710am, 845am] Dax update -
50% retrace at the moment and a nice looking five wave advance.
End of a five-up (A/1, blue) or C of an expanded flat (red) when done.
Adjusted the immediately bearish count to show better form. INDU finds itself at a similar position,squiggle-wise (see 855am entry above).