Monday, October 17, 2011

Market Timing Update (10/17/11)

[EOD] Stocks -
SPX turned before reaching 1260.57, the upper limit on a proposed 5-up from the low. The following two charts show a potential 5-down from the nominal high in NQ and ES, with futures breaking down to a lower low in after hours trading.
However, today's price action did not offer total confirmation. It leaves the door open that small-degree wave 4 is still in progress based on either the blue count or the green count, OR a sideways wave 2/B is already in its late stages based on the purple count. See the 2nd chart below.

For larger counts, see Retrace or Breakout (10/14/11)

[2pm] SPX update -
Interesting times, is wave 4 really done? Most likely yes based on ES but ambiguous based on SPX cash.

[915am] ES update -
The daily chart shows an ES version of the top tracking counts. See Retrace or Breakout (10/14/11) for discussions. The 30-min chart shows a near term retrace, beware of multiple options (shallow, moderate, total retrace) discussed under the bearish count section of Retrace or Breakout (10/14/11).
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