Monday, October 10, 2011

Market Timing Update (10/10/11)

[EOD] Stocks -
Higher highs in INDU, Transports, ES and GDOW, but not yet in SP500 and other cash indexes. Effectively, we have a higher high in U.S. stocks.

VIX did not manage a higher high. So we are faced with the option of a completed ABC advance, a truncated 5-wave advance, a potentially extending 5th of a 5-wave advance or a protracting 4th of a 5-wave advance (see chart to the right).

Top tracking counts on SPX are refreshed in Chart 1. The primary assessment is that if the market continues to recover, odds favor such advance being a corrective rebound. See Progress (10/7/11) for additional discussions.

For the current advance, Chart 2 tracks a 5-up from the nominal low or a 3-up from a potential orthodox low.

[130pm] SPX update -

[1140am] DAX update at the close -
[1025am] Higher highs update -
Transports, INDU and GDOW make higher highs.
[830am, 9am] ES/NQ, DAX update -
ES - impulse up or triple three from the nominal low (or a completed ABC from the orth. low - see the NQ chart to the right)
DAX - various options