Wednesday, March 31, 2010

Market Timing Update (3/31/10 Close)

As discussed in the intraday update, the near term bearish and bullish counts discussed in recent days have most likely aligned with each other. The is a welcome resolution from a wave count perspective.

According to the near term bearish count, B-down of (Z) is in progress (Chart 1). But according to the near term bullish count, A of (Z) has [v] of A (or C?) yet to finish (Chart 2).

From this perspective, the contracting triangle which may have ended at today's low is either the end of B-down or the end of [iv]-down.
[1] There remains some uncertainty as to whether today's low is the end of the triangle or wave [c] of the triangle is still in progress - it implies a lower low if wave [c] of the triangle is still in progress.
[2] The near term direction of the market should turn up if the triangle was completed earlier today. The only difference between the two counts is the wave degree of this triangle, and thus the corresponding upside potential.

Chart 3 offers a squiggle count of the SPX (cash), assuming the triangle ended at today's low.

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