Tuesday, March 16, 2010

MTU- Making sense of the squiggles (3/16/10 Close)

The preferred simple double three (P2-like) structure discussed in the small caps point the way (3/12/10) as well as in yesterday's MTU (this chart) continues to be in sync with market price actions.

Chart 1 updates the squiggle count on the 60min chart in SPX/June-Mini. It suggests that the advance since the Feb 25th low is approaching its end. The coming top has the potential to be several degrees higher.



The more value-added observation is that squiggles actually point to several distinct ways that the market (SPX) could conclude the advance since the Feb 25th low. I itemize the top three possibilities below in descending order of (subjective) likelihood (see Chart 2).

[1] (Blue) Wave v is a regular impulse. Today's high is [3] of v.

[2] (Red) Wave v is an ending diagonal triangle. Today's high is [C] of v.

[3] (Green) Wave iv is still in progress in the form of a expanded flat. Today's high is [B]-up of iv. [C]-down of iv will perhaps draw SPX more than 20 points lower before rebounding to a new high.
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