Wednesday, March 10, 2010

Market Timing Update (3/10/10 Close)

* The decline from today's high in the SPX (1148.26) is clearly corrective (Chart 1). Thus Odds favor a higher high, which will push SPX even closer to a recovery high.

* Price actions do look wedgy over the past three days. The possibility of a corrective rebound since the Feb 5th low remains, be it a "P3"-like [ii]-up or a Wave A or Wave C in an aging "P2"(Chart 2, Red). Chart 3 offers a squiggle count, which places the advance into the close as the last leg of [E] of the wedge.

* This wedge also fits as wave v of (v) under the bullish count (Chart 2, Green)

* Chart 2 offers a more bullish alt count (Green/Alt) which reflects an extended fifth wave. Today's high is likely iii of (v) in this case. Also see Chart 3 (green).

* An even more bullish alt count (not shown) assumes an extended (iii) in Chart 2. In that case, the market is only at iii of (iii).

* VIX was able to preserve its low and actually managed to print a decent sized green bar today (up more than 1 index points), implying a less bullish stance on stocks. See Chart 4.

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