Market Timing Update (3/22/10 Close)

The Dow and SPX did not make a new recovery high today whereas COMPQ did so slightly, creating a non-confirmation for the moment.

Today's rebound in the SPX is either a fifth wave with respect to the 2/5/10 low OR wave C of an expanded flat second wave retracement of the decline from the 3/17/10 high.

Either wave, this immediate segment of advance is approaching its end (see Chart). For ease of discussion, I'll adopt the labels in the P2 structure discussed in the weekend update - the market is at the end of (i) of [v] of A-up ([v] if the bears are lucky) or [x] of B-down, with respect to (Z)-up of P2.