MTU Weekend Ed - Lower Channel Line (8/11/23 close)

 SPX is approaching the lower channel line off its March low and June/July support.

MTU Weekend Ed - Correcting (8/4/23 Close)

SPX is correcting the upswing from (at least) the March low.  

The decline so far may be counted as
three waves down from the nominal high or a potential five-down from an orthodox high due to a failed small-degree 5th wave. 

MTU Weekend Ed. - Base Channel (7/28/23 Close)

Since its ATH, SPX has likely seen 3 waves down and 3 waves up so far. 

A potential base channel since the Oct 2022 low is now well defined.  SPX is currently probing this base channel high. 

If the advance since Oct 2022 is indeed an impulse, SPX should rise comfortably above this base channel. 

If the advance is corrective, the base channel should be a formidable resistance. 

MTU Weekend Ed - Structure II (7/21/23 close)

 

MTU Weekend Ed. - Structure (7/14/23 close)

If this potential large wave FOUR in SPX is still in progress, it may be a triangle with its B wave around the current high, or  a WXY structure with W at the May 2022 low and X around the current high.  

 

The current high is at upper line of a (potential base-) channel from the Oct 2022 low.  A more meaningful reaction is likely.

Squiggles

MTU Weekend Ed - Minor Consolidation (7/7/23 close)

 

MTU Weekend Ed. - Quarter End (6/30/23 close)

SPX is likely to react at the upper channel line (Chart 1) or consolidate towards a lesser-degree lower channel line (Chart 2).

SPX is up 15.91% year to date (excluding dividends).  It's possible to view the Dow and SPX being aligned again (not the only scenario), sharing an ABC-down-ABC-up structure from the 2022 ATH, SPX and INDU (Chart 3).

MTU Weekend Ed - Reaction (6/23/23 Close)

 SPX is pulling back within the channel after a 4-week run. 

 

 

 

MTU Weekend Ed - Channel (6/16/23 close)

(From last week) - "SPX has remained above major resistance for a second week, but the upswing since Oct 2022 has also remained in channel."

Now, SPX is probing the channel. 

 

MTU Weekend Ed - Resistance and Channel (6/9/23)

SPX has remained above major resistance for a second week, but the upswing since Oct 2022 has also remained in channel (Chart 1), so far.  Three waves up since Oct 2022. Three waves up since the March low - perhaps can be counted as a single five since the March low (Chart 2 blue)

MTU Weekend Ed. - Closed over Resistance Zone (6/2/23 close)

SPX finally closed over its key resistance zone, which has reined in advances since the Oct 2022 bottom.

MTU Weekend Ed. - Update (5/26/23)

 

MTU Weekend Ed. - The Zone (5/19/23)

SPX is probing the top of its resistance zone, closed above the Feb 2022 low and slightly shy of the Jan 2022 low (Chart 1)

A reaction (down) from current levels could be labeled as a reversal from an ending expanding triangle or wave C-down of an expanded flat (Chart 2)

Chart 3 updates the larger tracking scenarios. 

MTU Weekend Ed. - Two Trianges (2) (5/12/23 close)

Potential triangles update - INDU did a post-triangle deep retrace to probe the small triangle boundary while SPX consolidated at a higher level. 

Long term NDX tracking

 

MTU Weekend Ed. - Two Triangles (5/6/23)

Two triangles, both potentially bullish  (chart 1 SPX,  chart 2 INDU), and how they potentially fit into the larger structure (chart 3 SPX)

MTU Weekend Ed. - Probing [4/28/23 close]

SPX is making another attempt at the resistance zone, from yet another higher low.  A breakout is likely.  The question is whether it is the middle part of a larger impulse (wave FIVE-up) or the ending part of a correction (wave B-up) - since key options regarding the larger structure have remained unchanged. 

MTU Weekend Ed - Consolidation (4/21/23 close)

 No change in the overall structure.  Monitor a potential small-degree wave four. 

MTU Weekend Ed. - Back at the Zone (4/14/23 close)

SPX is back at its major resistance zone - a fifth attempt, with higher lows (Dec, Mar).   Chart 1

Monitoring a potential triangle wave [b] in SPX if . This triangle does not work for other indices.  Chart 2

Tracking counts for the upswing from the March low - for the triangle or further advance. Chart 3

Hard to say whether Friday's pullback is an impulse or an ABC structure.  Chart 4.

MTU Weekend Ed. - Short Term Update (4/6/23 close)

Short term - potential wave four-down

Structure - also in the process of confirming the right shoulder of a potential HS. The potential right shoulder right against the major resistance zone over the past 18 months .