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Saturday, April 22, 2023
MTU Weekend Ed - Consolidation (4/21/23 close)
No change in the overall structure. Monitor a potential small-degree wave four.
My DJIA SPX W5000 SMAC trend indicators still moving up.
Only large falls the physical index of each will turn them down at this point in time.
Again note that this indicator is based on average price action which for the past 5 months has been in the same range. This is when it can be thrown out more often than in normal times. However since they turned up* the mkt has as usual not gone (net) down.
*DJIA one turned up on 31 March and SPX on 6 April and W5000 on 11 April.
Looking at the sequencing there I would say if that is a 5 waver (and not an ABC as MTU suggests), the end of a 5 wave move from 15 March low was on 19 April peak even though it was a bit lower than the peak on 17 April.
Ive never really looked at the precise sequencing of ABC moves as they are often erratic fuzzy beasts, but its possible the for the same reason I think 19 April, a ABC may end there too perhaps.
Note also SPX hasnt made much gain since last 2 weeks.
There must be many sites. IMHO, since corrective wave are single threes(abc) or double threes (abcxabc) or triple threes (abcxabcxabc), familiarity with and proficiency in counting a three (flats for example) is most helpful.
I was looking at some EW websites and came across a statement that in a 5 wave impulse seq that a wave 2 (a-b-c) cannot be a triangle (ie it has to be a zig-zag with c wave lower than a).
Whats your thoughts on that MTU ?
Ive seen several wave 2's which were triangles over the decades.
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See bottom of this page https://bullwaves.org/complete-guide-elliott-wave-correction-patterns/#:~:text=The%20Elliott%20wave%20abc%20correction,and%20the%20flat%20335%20correction.
The idea behind that statement is that triangles precedes the final wave (per Prechter for example). Thus, in an impulse, wave two cannot be a triangle.
SMAC Update 21 April 2023 Mkt Close -
ReplyDeleteMy DJIA SPX W5000 SMAC trend indicators still moving up.
Only large falls the physical index of each will turn them down at this point in time.
Again note that this indicator is based on average price action which for the past 5 months has been in the same range. This is when it can be thrown out more often than in normal times. However since they turned up* the mkt has as usual not gone (net) down.
*DJIA one turned up on 31 March and SPX on 6 April and W5000 on 11 April.
Chart 2 - Hourly Chart
ReplyDeleteLooking at the sequencing there I would say if that is a 5 waver (and not an ABC as MTU suggests), the end of a 5 wave move from 15 March low was on 19 April peak even though it was a bit lower than the peak on 17 April.
Ive never really looked at the precise sequencing of ABC moves as they are often erratic fuzzy beasts, but its possible the for the same reason I think 19 April, a ABC may end there too perhaps.
Note also SPX hasnt made much gain since last 2 weeks.
Question - MTU do you know any website that shows proper detailed analysis of EW countertrend / ABC waves ?
ReplyDeleteI dont seem to be able to find any.
There must be many sites. IMHO, since corrective wave are single threes(abc) or double threes (abcxabc) or triple threes (abcxabcxabc), familiarity with and proficiency in counting a three (flats for example) is most helpful.
DeleteI was looking at some EW websites and came across a statement that in a 5 wave impulse seq that a wave 2 (a-b-c) cannot be a triangle (ie it has to be a zig-zag with c wave lower than a).
ReplyDeleteWhats your thoughts on that MTU ?
Ive seen several wave 2's which were triangles over the decades.
-------------------------------
See bottom of this page
https://bullwaves.org/complete-guide-elliott-wave-correction-patterns/#:~:text=The%20Elliott%20wave%20abc%20correction,and%20the%20flat%20335%20correction.
The idea behind that statement is that triangles precedes the final wave (per Prechter for example). Thus, in an impulse, wave two cannot be a triangle.
DeleteMkt Indexes at important juncture today.
ReplyDeleteSMAC Update Thursday 27 April 2023 Mkt Close -
ReplyDeleteMy DJIA, SPX, & W5000 SMAC trend indicators are still moving up. But have somewhat slowed the rate of gain.
And these indexes still remain aloft and want to bubble up in line with its signal. But note they havent gone thru the last peak prices weeks ago.
Shows how somewhat reliable this Special Moving Average Calculator is and its something that has always amazed me.
Data stream shows the SPX one will be the first to turn down if the mkt declines.