SPX is making another attempt at the resistance zone, from yet another higher low. A breakout is likely. The question is whether it is the middle part of a larger impulse (wave FIVE-up) or the ending part of a correction (wave B-up) - since key options regarding the larger structure have remained unchanged.
The answer to MTU's question above (ie is the current up move the start of Wave 5 or end of B wave on the main waves) can be answered possibly ? by the decline from Dec 2021 to Oct 2022 wherein we see what pretty much looks like 5 waves down (forming MTU's red A wave).That is seen on all indexes and main stks running to that same timing.
ReplyDeleteEW rules say a minimum of 3 waves forms a correction (only 2 are seen so far - from the top Dec 21 and the rally since Oct has been weak) so a neg C wave of some type would be needed to complete the Wave 4 MTU suggests before a 5 could unfold.
The point Im making is because its probably 5 down from Dec 21 to Oct 22, means that entire seq isnt an ABC of a Wave 4, which would be the basis of concluding a 5 has commenced. The number of waves in that decline is the key thing.
This leaves us with the conclusion MTU's B is still in progress and C is to follow if a Wave 4 is in fact unfolding.
Given tho waves have been distorted since 2000 that fact also need considering in this analysis.
I
SMAC Update Weekend - Fri 28 April 2023 Mkt Close -
ReplyDeleteMy DJIA, SPX, & W5000 SMAC trend indicators are still moving up.
The SPX one will turn down soon if it remains around these levels, and sooner if it declines 100+ points.
Bearing in mind this indicator is based more on price levels than timing for reversals. Its only guide and other EW counts etc... things need to be considered for trading decisions.
SMAC Update Thurs 4 May 2023 Mkt Close -
ReplyDeleteMy DJIA, SPX, & W5000 SMAC trend indicators are still moving up but rate of advance has slowed markedly.
The SPX and DJIA ones will turn down in a few few days if these index levels are maintained, and W5000 one also soon. Sooner if the indexes fall further.