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Saturday, May 6, 2023
MTU Weekend Ed. - Two Triangles (5/6/23)
Two triangles, both potentially bullish (chart 1 SPX, chart 2 INDU), and how they potentially fit into the larger structure (chart 3 SPX)
On this issue of triangles - because of the fact both SPX DJIA are made of sectors of stks which are not in usion the indexes are skewed far more than they were pre-2000. It makes there patterns somewhat unreadable in EW terms.
A lot of the latter gyrations in those indexes the past week or so is due to some big cap stks - MSFT - being pumped up and its at its at its limits of an a-b-c from the Jan low prob. Prior to that MSFT had 5 waves down from the Nov 21 peak to the Nov 22 low. The blip up in late April in in essence artificial being caused by one stk.
Triangles are formed by certain conditions, and their starting points, wave seqs and size of waves can tell what direction and strength they will move out to. But also have to read in conjunction with the ST MT & LT EW count.
In such triangles (expanding ones in this case) the wave swings within a triangle need to be maintained for its relevance to be intact but the last downswing on the DJIA one is too low, as prob is the SPX one. That usually indicates the triangle formation is over. These expanding triangles also can form at peaks or intermediate congestion points.
You had on SPX Chart 1 in early-mid Feb a contracting triangle forming after 3 waves up from the Dec low and it was at a peak. So its dangerous to rely on a triangle, flag, pennant etc... at wave 3, or even wave 5* (only rel safe time is at wave 1). *At wave 5 they can form the next high deg wave 2 or 4.
These micro-waves can easily be misread on these indexes and get a trader into strife.
My DJIA, SPX, & W5000 SMAC trend indicators are still moving up but Friday's rise have pushed them up a bit higher extending the timing date for rollover.
The SPX and DJIA ones will turn down in a few days if Friday's gain is lost next week, and W5000 one also soon.
Only solid sustained rises in these indexes over the next 10 days or more with keep this indicator heading up. So it depends on what the mkt does.
MTU,
ReplyDeleteThose highs for Nov-Dec 2021 on DJIA SPX NYA NASDAQ etc.. are those numbers anything significant in EW numbers and ratios ?
Are any large Fib numbers ?
Or multiples of old lows or highs ?
You seem to know all that stuff.
I note as a matter of interest that -
DeleteFib numbers 610 and 4181 = 4791.
This is 2 points from its 29 Dec 2021 peak of 4793.06.
4973.06 is the all time high for SPX
DeleteCharts 1 2 above -
ReplyDeleteOn this issue of triangles - because of the fact both SPX DJIA are made of sectors of stks which are not in usion the indexes are skewed far more than they were pre-2000. It makes there patterns somewhat unreadable in EW terms.
A lot of the latter gyrations in those indexes the past week or so is due to some big cap stks - MSFT - being pumped up and its at its at its limits of an a-b-c from the Jan low prob. Prior to that MSFT had 5 waves down from the Nov 21 peak to the Nov 22 low. The blip up in late April in in essence artificial being caused by one stk.
Triangles are formed by certain conditions, and their starting points, wave seqs and size of waves can tell what direction and strength they will move out to. But also have to read in conjunction with the ST MT & LT EW count.
In such triangles (expanding ones in this case) the wave swings within a triangle need to be maintained for its relevance to be intact but the last downswing on the DJIA one is too low, as prob is the SPX one. That usually indicates the triangle formation is over. These expanding triangles also can form at peaks or intermediate congestion points.
You had on SPX Chart 1 in early-mid Feb a contracting triangle forming after 3 waves up from the Dec low and it was at a peak. So its dangerous to rely on a triangle, flag, pennant etc... at wave 3, or even wave 5* (only rel safe time is at wave 1). *At wave 5 they can form the next high deg wave 2 or 4.
These micro-waves can easily be misread on these indexes and get a trader into strife.
SMAC Update Weekend Fri 5 May 2023 Mkt Close -
ReplyDeleteMy DJIA, SPX, & W5000 SMAC trend indicators are still moving up but Friday's rise have pushed them up a bit higher extending the timing date for rollover.
The SPX and DJIA ones will turn down in a few days if Friday's gain is lost next week, and W5000 one also soon.
Only solid sustained rises in these indexes over the next 10 days or more with keep this indicator heading up. So it depends on what the mkt does.
SMAC Update Thurs 11 May 2023 Mkt Close -
ReplyDeleteMy DJIA, SPX, & W5000 SMAC trend indicators are still moving up but their rate of gain is negligible.