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Saturday, May 13, 2023
MTU Weekend Ed. - Two Trianges (2) (5/12/23 close)
Potential triangles update - INDU did a post-triangle deep retrace to probe the small triangle boundary while SPX consolidated at a higher level.
My DJIA, SPX, & W5000 SMAC trend indicators are still moving up but their rate of gain is negligible.
Both SPX & DJIA ones are close to rollover. We will see what happens.............
Note both of those SMAC indicators turned up on 31 March and those indexes have not seen for most if that time since a net down move of any sustained period. Sideways gyrations - showing the indicator will give you a guide as to what the direction is not likely to be (ie down).
I was thinking more of a ST chart than these - a 5 & 2 yr chart.
Those LT count need to go back to 1971. If some of the their components were listed long before that date the true vibration probably will be aligned with DJIA SPX because despite SPX starting in in 1959 its core stks were around long before then.
I would prob conclude that yr 2000 was wave 3 from the 1974 low (because there was a peak in 1987 making wave 1 and wave 2 low in 1990 prob forming a solid basing zone) and 2009 was wave 4 and the past 13+? yrs is wave 5, but whether the 5 is complete is the issue.
The fact the start of the was NASDAQ impulse wave was late 1974 - same lows at DJIA SPX - tells us its working to their gen timing paradigm so the same thing would prob apply now.
So its waves based on the above assessment are approx -
Start Dec 1974 low Wave 1 being 13 yrs to 1987 peak Wave 2 being 3 yrs to 1990 low Wave 3 being 9.5 yrs to 2000 peak Wave 4 being 9 yrs to 2009 low Wave 5 being 13 yrs to 2021 peak ?
You can prob supplant the 9 yrs as being an extended Fib 8. (You do get a intermediate top in it 8 yrs from 1990 low in late 1998). The extra 1 yr being the time to run 13 yrs from 1987 high to 2000 (interesting obv - are Fib numbers working to tops more than lows ?).
If this assessment is correct, NASDAQ would need to come back to the 2018 lows at least to base again.
My DJIA and SPX SMAC trend indicators on today's close have turned down. The W5000 one is still moving up tho the rate of gain is small.
Both the SPX & DJIA ones, based on data stream, may bump again for day or so if the mkt remains constant or modestly declines.
This is day 1 of reversal and confidence for use requires the negative trend of this SMAC to be maintained for a week.
Overall LT this indicator has a 15% error rate and we must note any reversal could be in the 15% parameter bloc. The risk also is of net sideways gyrations with mkt not moving up out of it until the SMAC turns up.
My DJIA and SPX SMAC trend indicators turned up yesterday due to the sharp rise on Wednesday. And continues up today modestly. So both reversed down for a day then up for 2 days.
The W5000 one also turned down on Wednesday but bumped slightly up today.
I said above last weekend this type of bounce could happen.
Any reversal at all on the SMAC after weeks of moving in one direction indicates possible trend change about to happen. But also can be a false reversal, as happens in 15% of instances.
I will report on the SMAC until the next move is over.
I note the magnitude of the rise the past 2 days was not seen on all indexes - ref RUT NYA.
MTU, would like to see chart & your count on NASDAQ.
ReplyDeleteSMAC Update Weekend Fri 12 May 2023 Mkt Close -
ReplyDeleteMy DJIA, SPX, & W5000 SMAC trend indicators are still moving up but their rate of gain is negligible.
Both SPX & DJIA ones are close to rollover.
We will see what happens.............
Note both of those SMAC indicators turned up on 31 March and those indexes have not seen for most if that time since a net down move of any sustained period. Sideways gyrations - showing the indicator will give you a guide as to what the direction is not likely to be (ie down).
See charts posted above
DeleteNDX / NASDAQ Charts
ReplyDeleteI was thinking more of a ST chart than these - a 5 & 2 yr chart.
Those LT count need to go back to 1971. If some of the their components were listed long before that date the true vibration probably will be aligned with DJIA SPX because despite SPX starting in in 1959 its core stks were around long before then.
I would prob conclude that yr 2000 was wave 3 from the 1974 low (because there was a peak in 1987 making wave 1 and wave 2 low in 1990 prob forming a solid basing zone) and 2009 was wave 4 and the past 13+? yrs is wave 5, but whether the 5 is complete is the issue.
The fact the start of the was NASDAQ impulse wave was late 1974 - same lows at DJIA SPX - tells us its working to their gen timing paradigm so the same thing would prob apply now.
So its waves based on the above assessment are approx -
Start Dec 1974 low
Wave 1 being 13 yrs to 1987 peak
Wave 2 being 3 yrs to 1990 low
Wave 3 being 9.5 yrs to 2000 peak
Wave 4 being 9 yrs to 2009 low
Wave 5 being 13 yrs to 2021 peak ?
You can prob supplant the 9 yrs as being an extended Fib 8.
(You do get a intermediate top in it 8 yrs from 1990 low in late 1998). The extra 1 yr being the time to run 13 yrs from 1987 high to 2000 (interesting obv - are Fib numbers working to tops more than lows ?).
If this assessment is correct, NASDAQ would need to come back to the 2018 lows at least to base again.
There is evidence tho some of these Fib numbers should be added to give tops and bottoms - approx examples below.
DeleteFib 2 + 5 = 7.
7 Yrs from 2000 top = 2007 top.
Fib 5 + 21 = 26
1974 low plus 26 yrs = 2000 top.
Fib 5 + 13 = 18
1982 low plus 18 yrs = 2000 top.
But determining which pairs is the valid match the problem.
Multiples of every possible Fibs pair will give almost every number.
SMAC Update Monday 15 May 2023 Mkt Close -
ReplyDeleteMy DJIA and SPX SMAC trend indicators on today's close have turned down. The W5000 one is still moving up tho the rate of gain is small.
Both the SPX & DJIA ones, based on data stream, may bump again for day or so if the mkt remains constant or modestly declines.
This is day 1 of reversal and confidence for use requires the negative trend of this SMAC to be maintained for a week.
Overall LT this indicator has a 15% error rate and we must note any reversal could be in the 15% parameter bloc. The risk also is of net sideways gyrations with mkt not moving up out of it until the SMAC turns up.
We will see what happens.............
SMAC Update Thursday 18 May 2023 Mkt Close -
ReplyDeleteMy DJIA and SPX SMAC trend indicators turned up yesterday due to the sharp rise on Wednesday. And continues up today modestly.
So both reversed down for a day then up for 2 days.
The W5000 one also turned down on Wednesday but bumped slightly up today.
I said above last weekend this type of bounce could happen.
Any reversal at all on the SMAC after weeks of moving in one direction indicates possible trend change about to happen. But also can be a false reversal, as happens in 15% of instances.
I will report on the SMAC until the next move is over.
I note the magnitude of the rise the past 2 days was not seen on all indexes - ref RUT NYA.