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Saturday, June 17, 2023
MTU Weekend Ed - Channel (6/16/23 close)
(From last week) - "SPX has remained above major resistance for a second week, but the upswing since Oct 2022 has also remained in channel."
The thing to note with SPX and those indexes that have run up at an angle since Oct is not the horizontal resistance lines but the diagonal one. Need to make adjustments otherwise false break out might have occurred. The mkt moves up and down on these angles over time.
That contrasted to the EW count (your red B wave). And larger waves going back to 1982 1974 2000 2009 too.
The move in recent weeks seems too slow to be the usual bull trend. Tho anything is possible.
Your count on chart 2 seems very correct but blue 5 might be a wave 3 as often they are extended (always something to watch for)..
NASDAQ has now traced out what you would usually expect to see of 5 waves down from late 2021 to Oct 22, then a ABC to about now.
DJIA & NYA have simply retraced a 4th time the tops made in Dec Feb April (2 mth gaps) to June. Its also balancing out the Dec22 to Sep/Oct22 down swing.
If I could see something on the EW and other patterns I know on the bullish side I would say so.
And as Chart 1 implies if the Blue 3 (or whatever the Nov 21 peak is) there needs to be another third wave down to complete min EW seq (your red B), because the red A wave is 5 down, not an abc 3 waver.
The thing to note with SPX and those indexes that have run up at an angle since Oct is not the horizontal resistance lines but the diagonal one. Need to make adjustments otherwise false break out might have occurred. The mkt moves up and down on these angles over time.
ReplyDeleteThat contrasted to the EW count (your red B wave).
And larger waves going back to 1982 1974 2000 2009 too.
The move in recent weeks seems too slow to be the usual bull trend. Tho anything is possible.
Your count on chart 2 seems very correct but blue 5 might be a wave 3 as often they are extended (always something to watch for)..
Chart 1.
ReplyDeleteIf that is a red B wave, I suspect its at or close to its end now.
EW Count -
ReplyDeleteNASDAQ has now traced out what you would usually expect to see of 5 waves down from late 2021 to Oct 22, then a ABC to about now.
DJIA & NYA have simply retraced a 4th time the tops made in Dec Feb April (2 mth gaps) to June. Its also balancing out the Dec22 to Sep/Oct22 down swing.
If I could see something on the EW and other patterns I know on the bullish side I would say so.
And as Chart 1 implies if the Blue 3 (or whatever the Nov 21 peak is) there needs to be another third wave down to complete min EW seq (your red B), because the red A wave is 5 down, not an abc 3 waver.
A int ref is to review NASDAQ chart in 2000 (chart 1998-2002).
ReplyDeleteYou saw 5 waves down and 3 up to Sept 2000, with those 2 moves balancing out the time period of 3 months each.
However the timing position is 3 yrs offset on d trend.