Monday, May 21, 2012

Market Timing Update (5/21/12)

[EOD] Stocks -
A five-wave decline from the May 1st high in U.S. stocks is likely over (Chart 1). The minimum target for the upswing is around 1340 in SPX if this interpretation is correct.

On the bullish side, there's significant upside potential if the recent low marked the end of a flat correction (Chart 2, blue).

On the bearish side, today's rebound could be a small degree wave 4 (Chart 2, pink).
Also see Technical Damage and Support (5/18/12) for further discussion.

Wave structures off the recent low (Chart 3) match well with key tracking counts mentioned above. The green and red counts in Chart 3 are primary bullish and bearish tracking counts on the squiggles, respectively.

[1225pm] SPX update -
A visual five wave advance off the recent low at the moment. Potential to extend the impulse or morph into threes. See charts.

[815am] ES update -