Friday, May 18, 2012

MTU Weekend Ed. - Technical Damage and Support (5/18/12 Close)

The sell-off in US stocks, following a technical-level breach among other things, has now done too much technical damage to call it a fourth wave pullback.

The top bullish and bearish counts are thus
(1-bullish) a (B)-wave pullback since the March high (Chart 1, Chart 2 red).
(2-bearish) an initial decline off the May 1st high which is a nominal high in the Dow but truncated highs in other key benchmarks (Chart 2, blue).

The current decline has pushed benchmark indexes into a potentially “strong” support zone. The subsequent rebound, or lack of one, will offer additional clues regarding the big picture.

Support is likely to come from

(1) a 0.382 retrace of the advance since the October 2011 low (Chart 2). 
(2) the 200-day moving average which is around 1280 in SPX. Chart 3 at right refreshes the DAX/SP500 configuration. While the MA200 in DAX is downward sloping, that in SP500 is still sloping upwards at the moment.
(3) the technical breakdown target area around 1292 (Chart 2), about where Friday's low in SPX (1291.98) was.
(4) the potential completion of a downward flat (Chart 4 blue).
(5) the long term support-resistance zone if a quick and successful rebound could materialize (Chart 5).