Tuesday, May 29, 2012

Market Timing Update (5/29/12)

[EOD] Stocks -
Regarding the big picture, we saw key overlap or near overlap in mid-caps and certain small-cap indexes - see 1030am entry below. This shifts the odds to a larger rebound (wave2, wave B) or a new bullish advance. However, price actions has yet to prove themselves to be motive. See chart 1 and chart 2.

Also see Inside Week (5/25/12) for long term thoughts on the Hope Rally.

[1030am] SPX update -
Top tracking counts - each is color coded.
SP400  overlapped with its April low and effectively with its mid May low.  Russell is getting very close to both corresponding lows.  Transports are back inside prior "consolidation" channel.  Odds now favor a larger 2nd wave rebound or the next bullish advance.  The bearish alternative would be a small b-wave rebound with respect to the May high.

[730am] ES update -
ES continues its attempt to regain prior channel support (Chart 1). Let's see if it succeeds.
ES price structure eliminates the large triangle consolidation.
(Chart 2 red) shows a double three rebound bearish squiggle. (Chart 2, blue) shows the nested 1/2 bullish squiggle.