Thursday, May 31, 2012

Market Timing Update (5/31/12)

[EOD] Stocks -
The market has so far stayed within a two-week range (Chart 1, blue). But note that the bullish blue count is suggesting a powerful upward swing. The bearish counts show a small-degree 2nd wave of a regular [v]-down (purple) or an EDT [v]-down (red) is in progress.
Chart 2 shows how these tracking counts fit into the big picture.

[11 am] SPX update -
Large-caps are weak. Mid-caps and small-caps are holding up much better. See chart for color-coded tracking squiggles.

[730 am] ES update -
It's a month-end date today.

ES bullish count (blue) - [1]-up off the May low as an LD. [2]-down found overnight support at 0.618-fib retrace. We could see one more downswing for [2]-down but it is not required due to (1) a potentially completed zigzag decline OR (2) a potential double-three rebound count (not shown).

ES bearish count (red) - (A)(B)(C) rebound to the recent nominal high. (1)-down is complete at the overnight low, (2)-up is in progress.