Friday, March 9, 2012

MTU Weekend Ed. - Reset ? (3/9/12 Close)

Bottom line - SP500 has quickly recovered from a 2.75% decline. Unless it reverses down next week, odds favor a fifth wave advance off the November 2011 being in progress given the new high in NDX and SP500 A/D line and an already deep retrace in SP500.

Details -
NDX made a marginal new high (Chart 1) and sports the most short term bullish wave structure on the squiggles (Chart 2).

SPX managed a deep retrace with top options still open on the table (Chart 3).  Squiggle count (Chart 4) lands support.

Meanwhile, the Dow has severely lagged (Chart 5) and probably shows the clearest potentially bearish seven-wave rebound since the recent low (Chart 6).

If this rebound is a bearish 2nd wave or B wave rebound (whose odds are diminishing), there's wisdom in the phrase "topping progress."   A potential B wave retrace is likely part of an ongoing sideways wave [iv] variations (i.e. a triangle or a flat based on the green count, Chart 3) with respect to the November 2011 low. 

Otherwise, one must respect the possibility that the market successfully managed a wave [iv]-down reset  (red count, Chart 3) and is on its way to wrap up wave [v]-up with respect to the November 2011 low (Chart 7).  Supporting factors include the new high in NDX, deep retrace in SPX accompanied by a new high in the SP500 Advance/Decline line (Chart 8).