Tuesday, March 6, 2012

Market Timing Update (3/6/12)

[EOD] Stocks -
Now that there is a meaningful pullback, we have following options (Chart 1). Chart 2 shows squiggle tracking counts which are fluid.

[bearish, purple] A larger trend change. The current decline is wave 1 or wave A down.
[somewhat bullish, green] Wave [iii] off the Nov low ended at point #9 green. The current decline is wave A of wave [iv]-down. Wave [iv] could be sideways or straight down as marked.
[bullish, red] Wave [iii] off the Nov low ended at point #9 red and wave [iv]-down has been in progress for a while. The current decline is wave (c)-down of [iv]-down, which is approaching its end.

In terms of odds, if SPX and NDX are roughly in sync (Chart 3), odds favor the bearish to somewhat bullish counts. Otherwise, the bullish count should be on the table.

[135pm] SPX squiggles -
updated squiggles, see 2nd chart below.
[11am] SPX squiggles -

[10am] SPX update -
Confirmation of a turn. SPX now entering the base of the prior expanding EDT based on the green count point #8. Potential initial support. See 2nd chart below.

[740am] DAX update -
One bearish way to count the DAX as a completed ABC recovery.

[710am] ES update -
Turning. [iv]-down or a larger trend change (Chart 1). Chart 2 shows various tracking color coded squiggles - nested 1s2s, ABC or LD/ED decline nearing completion. Also see yesterday's EOD update for more details.