If a wave (v)-up is still missing off the March 6th low, wave (iv)-down most likely ended at today's low. We have a i-up and ii-down (expanded flat) going on during the day session. Today's low (which is a lower low in INDU) appears to be the key, at least for the near term. See Chart 1. Breaking below today's low likely confirms the next down swing.
The alternative positions for wave (iv) down are
(1) March 19th low, followed by a 1/2/1/2 setup.
(2) Today's low going into the close concluding a triangle wave (iv) down.
Both appear less likely.
[1205pm] SPX squiggles -
[820am] ES update -
