A five wave advance since the December low most likely is complete. The market is either in wave [iv] off the November low (blue, Chart 1, ES) or beginning a larger down trend (red, Chart 1, ES) if we have an ABC structure. See Base Channel (3/2/12) for details.In addition, one can also count a completed five wave advance since the November low in the cash SPX (Chart 2, purple). The green and red counts in Chart 2 illustrate potential paths for a wave [iv] correction, whether of a sideways or a deeper pullback type.
The best bearish count places today's rebound as a 2nd wave off an LDT (Chart 3, purple). Confirmation is lacking at the moment.
[11am] SPX update -
Higher degree counts. see 2nd chart below.
[10am] SPX squiggles -
[730am] ES update -
See the weekend commentary for details.
