Wednesday, January 4, 2012

Market Timing Update (1/4/12)

[EOD] Stocks -
First of all, today's high is a logical place to end a five-wave advance since the December low - if it is a five-wave advance.

Please see the red count in Chart 1. Since the top is capped by 1188.50 in SPX, a truncation as marked is not unreasonable.  The final 5th could extend, but under 1188.50 by this count.

Chart 2 offers a squiggle count of the final subwave. Although it is not visually obvious that the EDT as marked is of contracting nature, it turns out to be one if one does the math.

Whether the near term top is the entire wave C (as marked in Chart 3) or just [i] or [a] of C remains to be seen.

The divergence between SPX and INDU is notable. SPX is still below its October high (Chart 3) while INDU is well above its October high (Chart 4). Can SPX catch up?  We'll find out.

[735am] ES update -
Potential small-degree 4th wave. Moreover, the green count gets ES to the upper trend channel as marked. But note that the minimum requirement for a high is already met.

[710am] DAX update -
Note the 200D-SMA.