Tuesday, January 31, 2012

Market Timing Update (1/31/12)

[EOD] Stocks -
It's important to note that the rebound from yesterday's low to today's high in SPX is not a regular five wave advance since the proposed 3rd wave would be the shortest. As such, Chart 1 shows the near term options.
blue - bearish - A zizzag rebound from today's low likely has ended. Yesterday's low is likely to be breached.
green - bullish - Another upward wave is in progress, following an expanded flat pullback to today's low. We could be dealing with an x wave (instead of a i/ii/[1]/[2] setup), but expect yesterday's low to hold in this case. 
Chart 2 shows the larger count.

[12pm] DAX update at the close-
We have a five up from the recent low in DAX. The blue or green counts in first chart look more probable.

[11am] SPX/ES update -
A visual 5-down from the AM high in SPX cash, could also be interpreted as wave C-down of an expanded flat correction in ES. We'll find out.

[1010am] SPX/ES update -
Not a regular five-up from the low in SPX cash as wave 3 is the shortest. See charts.

[9am] ES update -
Month end, with near term options.

[840am] DAX update -
Near term options remain. See charts.