Tuesday, January 17, 2012

Market Timing Update (1/17/12)

[EOD] Stocks -
SPX to regained near term support due to the overnight/European push, but promptly lost it by the end of the day.

The subjective primary count is that either the top tick is in or a deeper/lengthier pullback is necessary. In other words, odds does not favor an immediate rebound.

At the moment, odds moderately favor wave [iv] being still in progress given the wave structure in DAX etc and a number of 3-wave swings in recent days. See charts.

Chart 1 (SPX) -
[red] Top is in. Chart 2 (ES) offers a squiggle count based on this interpretation.
[green] wave [iv] triangle
[purple] wave [iv] expanded triangle, double-three, flat.

[11am] ES update -
Potential end of an ABC small-degree 4th wave decline ending with an EDT. DAX is in a similar spot.

[730am] ES update -
ES has regained near term support, but is also up against overhead treadline resistance. Squiggle count also appears nearly complete.

[635am] DAX update -
The SMA200 (around 6384) and the October high (around 6430) are first tests whether sub-waves are extending higher. But squiggles are nearly complete on a five up since the December low.