Wednesday, September 28, 2011

Market Timing Update (9/28/11)

[EOD] Stocks -
First, some technical specifics. There's is a valid way to count a five-up from the recent low to yesterday's high (in cash as well as in futures), albeit a bit forced. The implication is that all three proposed top primary counts (1 bullish, 2 bearish,see below) survive.

Chart 1 (SPX) and Chart 2 (INDU) present the squiggle count.
(gray) five-up, with a LD wave 1 whose wave [i] is also an LD - LD-squared.
(blue) w-x-y flat-like structure.

The proposed gray five-up count is more obvious in INDU. Note also the overlapping waves in INDU during the sell-off.

Given the above , the top primary counts are shown in Chart 3 and Chart 4. See Twist and Turn (9/23/11) for discussion.

[2pm] ES update -
see 2nd chart below
[140pm] SPX update -
[1140am] DAX update at the close -
A look at how DAX closed, appears to be missing a wave 5-up. See 2nd chart below.
[1020am] VIX update -
Truncated 5 or triangle-like 4?

[7am] DAX and ES update -
DAX - higher high