Market Timing Update (9/30/11)

[EOD] stocks -
overlapping decline to date, with a more visible zigzag in NDX (see 335pm entry)
[335pm] ES, NDX update -

[1250pm] Gold update -
(red)- impulse down with a potential truncated fifth
(blue)- corrective count potentially complete.
see 2nd chart below.
[12pm] A look at how DAX clsoed -

[720am] ES, DAX update -
Month end.
ES - visually 7 waves down from the recent nominal high
DAX - expanded flat gap fill or zigzag down from the recent nominal (higher) high

Market Timing Update (9/29/11)

[EOD] Stocks -
The primary count of a corrective retrace still tracks well. Chart 1 (SPX) and Chart 2 (INDU) show the squiggle count.
Chart 3 and Chart 4 refresh the primary bullish and bearish count. Chart 5 shows how NDX can fit into the larger count - a wave 2 retrace of an LD under the bullish interpretation, which is Chart 3 in Twist and Turn (9/23/11) (see the 2nd chart below).

[220pm] SPX squiggle update -
an update to the 1212pm count










[1212pm] SPX squiggle update -
see 2nd chart below
[12pm] DAX closing update -
[820am] ES, DAX update -

Market Timing Update (9/28/11)

[EOD] Stocks -
First, some technical specifics. There's is a valid way to count a five-up from the recent low to yesterday's high (in cash as well as in futures), albeit a bit forced. The implication is that all three proposed top primary counts (1 bullish, 2 bearish,see below) survive.

Chart 1 (SPX) and Chart 2 (INDU) present the squiggle count.
(gray) five-up, with a LD wave 1 whose wave [i] is also an LD - LD-squared.
(blue) w-x-y flat-like structure.

The proposed gray five-up count is more obvious in INDU. Note also the overlapping waves in INDU during the sell-off.


Given the above , the top primary counts are shown in Chart 3 and Chart 4. See Twist and Turn (9/23/11) for discussion.


[2pm] ES update -
see 2nd chart below
[140pm] SPX update -
[1140am] DAX update at the close -
A look at how DAX closed, appears to be missing a wave 5-up. See 2nd chart below.
[1020am] VIX update -
Truncated 5 or triangle-like 4?

[7am] DAX and ES update -
DAX - higher high

Market Timing Update (9/27/11)

[EOD] Stocks -
First the primary bullish and bearish counts again - see Twist and Turn (9/23/11) for discussion. Note that a corrective rebound from the recent low does not necessarily lead to an immediate lower low as the triangle wave (B) in the bearish count (Chart 2) accommodates.
Note also that DAX is just 0.32% away from making a higher high (see 1145am entry)
Chart 3 (ES) and Chart 4 (SPX) show the squiggles.
(black-ES, green-SPX) impulse up, wave [iv]-down of 3-up likely completed at around the 0.382 fib retrace in the form of a zigzag.
(red-ES, blue-SPX) corrective flat, calls for additional decline
(gray-SPX) impulse up, looks more proportional w/o the overnight data in ES.

[325pm] ES update -
[iv]-down of 3-up in progress on impulse up, trend change on corrective count.










[1145am] How DAX closed -
0.32% away from making a higher high
[7am] ES, DAX, Gold update -
ES - retracing 0.618 of the prior sell-off at the moment, impulse up or double zigzag, see the weekend commentary and Monday's EOD update for discussions on the larger counts.
DAX - "breaking out" of the down TL
Gold - sharp rebound
UST bond - impulsing down
USD - 5-up over (or nearly over with one [v] of C or [v]of 3 push)

Market Timing Update (9/26/11)

[850pm] Global Stocks Update -
Top tracking counts on the Global Dow and the DJ World Stock Index. They are not meant to overstate the bullish or the bearish case, but highlight probable courses at the moment.
[EOD] Stocks -
Chart 1 and Chart2 update the primary bullish and bearish counts discussed in Twist and Turn (9/23/11). Chart 3 presents the tracking squiggle counts from the recent low.
[230pm] ES update -
various tracking counts from the low, see 2nd chart below
[1140am] DAX squiggles at close -
[7am] ES, DAX update -
ES-retracing .382 at the moment
DAX- rebound has continued