Friday, June 4, 2010

MTU Weekend Ed. - Bottoming Euro (6/4/10 Close)

Bottoming Euro
Since the debut of Euro as an accounting currency in 1999, EUR/USD has enjoyed a multi-year advance from its 2000 low to its 2008 high in the form of a well-defined impulse wave – a typical 5-wave move, with alternation between wave [2] and wave [4], and nice channeling (Chart 1).

Since the advance from the 2000 low has been an impulse wave, odds strongly favor the next major move in EUR/USD to be up and to achieve new highs, once the current correction is complete.

The pullback from the 2008 high to date, which represents a correction of the 7+ year advance, has so far taken on the form a well defined zigzag – a typical 5 wave-3 wave-5 wave [A]-[B]-[C] corrective structure.

Assuming this [A]-[B]-[C] corrective structure does not morph into a more complex combination, EUR/USD is likely approaching a major bottom, and could embark on a multi-year advance shortly.

A number of relevant technical observations (Chart 1) -
[1] EUR/USD has retraced more than 50% of its 7+ year advance, which more than adequately satisfies the minimum retracement requirement of a correction.
[2] There is a cluster of support between 116.48 and 119.28.
[3] There is strong trend line support between 110 and 115.

Wave counts –
The primary count (blue), which assumes an extended wave (5) of [C], has EUR/USD very close to the end of the entire correction, if it is not already there (Chart 1 and Chart 2). One more small degree up-then-down sequence is possible depending on where one labels the end of wave 4 of (5) of [C] (Chart 2).
Note that EUR/USD is right at the middle of the trend channel which is one of the probable ending points - just as what price did at the 2008 top.
Note also the bullish price/RSI divergence that has been developing (Chart 2.)

The alternative count (red), which assumes an extended wave (3) of [C], is more bearish. Under this interpretation, EUR/USD is at the end of wave (3) of [C], with wave (4)-up and wave (5)-down to come. Its projected trajectory is indicated by the red dotted line in Chart 1. Given the prevailing extreme bearish sentiment, this may be a lower probability count relative to the primary count (blue).

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