Wednesday, June 2, 2010

Market Timing Update (6/2/10 Close)

[10PM] SP500 cash counts - abc-x-abc OR a zigzag with a triangle (b) wave

[4PM Stocks]
Time dimension - Today is the 5th trading day since the 5/25 low. Since the marked did not make a lower low, one might label today as the 5th day of rebound. A nice fib number - 5 days of rebound following the prior 8 days of decline (Chart 1).

Wave count - Is it possible that the market rolls over tomorrow, or even overnight? I think the answer is yes according to one count - Chart 2 (Red Labels)
[1] Today's pre-market low may be (x) of [ii]-up of 3-down.
[2] Today's advance may be (y) of [ii] of 3-down. If so, the upside potential should be far smaller than if the market is in 2-up of (1)-down. Note that today's rebound came after a successful retest of one of the downward trend lines in Chart 1.
[3] Regardless of the wave labels, today's advance looks like a double zigzag with negative divergence into the close on the 5-minute chart (Chart 3). An impulse wave interpretation of today's advance is also possible but it's helpful to highlight the corrective wave possibilities.

The more bullish counts are indicated by the green and the blue labels in Chart 2.

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