Thursday, May 6, 2010

Market Timing Update (5/6/10 Close)

The sharp drop in stocks this afternoon - There have been reports / speculation that the sharp drop in stocks this afternoon was due to human error / erroneous trades and the corresponding market/automated-trading responses. If this is the case, today's low print may or may not be representative of where the market is / should be - from an EWP point of view or economics point of view. Given the development, bullish views and bearish views both call for additional thoughtfulness.

Both bullish and bearish counts remain valid if today's sharp drop is not representative - Chart 1 and Chart 2 offers the corresponding counts from the April 2010 peak. Regarding the bullish count, the wave-B correction most likely ended this afternoon.

The market has topped (P2, most likely) if one takes today's decline as is - P3 has started (Chart 2).

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