Thursday, May 13, 2010

Market Timing Update (5/13/10 Close)

Bottom line: Today's decline looks a small-degree corrective wave. The turning process may still be in progress with a one more wave up.

The primary evidence to label today's decline as a corrective wave is the well-defined small triangle in Chart 1, although the post triangle thrust down is larger than I'd anticipated.

Chart 2 shows the top three competing near term counts with my subjective probabilities.

[Green-P3, primary] Today's afternoon low is either (d) of the ED as marked, or the end of [b]-down of 2-up.
If the ED plays out, expect to see wave (e)-up of the ED tomorrow with a higher high. Wave (e) should be a "three".
If [b] of 2 ended (or is nearly complete), expect to see wave [c] of 2 to a higher high. Wave [c] should be a "five".

[Red-P3, Alt] Wave 2-up had ended at the overnight high last night/this morning. Wave 3 is in progress. It's till a puzzle to have a triangle in the squiggles though.

[Blue-Final advance of P2, 7 waves up] Today's low is (b) of [y], or the end of the 6th wave. One more wave to new highs (or truncation?).

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