Friday, January 6, 2012

MTU Weekend Ed. - Top Tick (1/6/12 Close)

Benchmark U.S. stock indexes are likely wrapping up the upswing from their October 2011 lows.  Chart 1 refreshes intermediate term counts on SPX presented in 2012 outlook (12/30/11).  The primary count of an EDT advance since the 2009 low with the current upswing as wave (B)-up of wave [B]-down remain unchanged.  The red and green labeled counts are major alternative counts.

Despite the Santa rally and the early January advance, SPX is still below its October 2011 high. The current upswing should likely end above the Oct-2011 high based on the larger wave structure. However, signs that SPX could truncate should not be overlooked:

[1] The Dow is already meaningfully above its October 2011 high (Chart 2), presenting an interesting divergence at the moment.  Can the broad market catch up?
[2] For the very near term, a failed triangle / consolidation area as marked by the green count in  Chart 3  should be at least near term bearish, lending support to the bearish leading diagonal count (blue, Chart 3 below).  A breakout upward would offer a chance to grab 1300 in SPX. The green count is intriguing with its layered triangles.
[3] From a time perspective,  the 3-month rebound since the early Oct-2011 low is now adequate with respect to the 5-month sell-off from the early May-2011 high, and offers a potential fib turning point.
[4] Last but not least,  VIX is likely tracing out its final subdivision of its multi-month decline from an EWP perspective (Chart 5 to the right).  Valuation-wise, VIX is inching toward fair value with respect to the most recent market volatility, which is unlikely to be sustainable going forward.

In other words, the minimum requirement for a swing top has been met (Chart 4, below).  The top tick is in sight.