Tuesday, January 24, 2012

Market Timing Update (1/24/12)

[EOD] Stocks -
Chart 1 updates the larger count where the recent high is likely the end of [iii] (green) or [v] (blue) off the December low.

This morning's sell-off presented a potential head-and-shoulders structure with measured target around 1290-1300, if the current pullback is a small-degree 4th wave.

The decline from the nominal high is so far three waves down and three waves up - not overlapping so far, and with the upswing within its base-channel so far (Chart 2). This structure presents several options (triangle, flat, WXY, 1/2/1/2).  The market will sort it out.  Many wise people have mentioned that trading and analysis are not entirely the same animal.

[135pm] SPX update -

[1115am] SPX update -
A bigger three-down and a smaller five-up in SPX. Let's see if it morphs into a seven-up before overlapping. Otherwise leave room for a triangle/flat or something more bullish.

P.S. Adopting expanded flats in the squiggle since the the low this AM allows one to count a seven-up.  The plot thickens.

[640am] ES update -
ES about to loose trend-line support. Measured move from a potential HS targets the red lower trend channel line in SPX cash.