Tuesday, January 10, 2012

Market Timing Update (1/10/12)

[EOD] Stocks -

Despite the near term options, U.S. stocks are getting at least near term overbought and key indexes are "wedging" and are accompanied by visible negative technical divergence. Chart 1 (SPX) and Chart 2 (INDU) track the primary count.

Chart 3 (SPX) to the right shows the primary near term tracking count - a regular five (green) or a triple-three (triple-zigzag?) off the December low.

It's probable that the green [iii] and the first red [z] are already complete with truncation if the proposed small-degree fifth wave does not extend.

With respect to the red triple-three count, it's possible that the last three morphs into an EDT itself.

[120pm] SPX, ES update -
Potential small-degree 4th wave in SPX and ES.

[940am] SPX update -
The red count caps SPX at about 1314.14. Challenges to this count is that wave [iv] as marked is "fat" and resulted in no net retrace.
The green count requires no cap at the moment. The upper trend channel is a reasonable target area.

[630am] DAX, ES update -
DAX- Small degree 5th wave likely.
ES - approaching the end of a triple zigzag (purple) of wave [iii] of an impulse (green).