Tuesday, September 27, 2011

Market Timing Update (9/27/11)

[EOD] Stocks -
First the primary bullish and bearish counts again - see Twist and Turn (9/23/11) for discussion. Note that a corrective rebound from the recent low does not necessarily lead to an immediate lower low as the triangle wave (B) in the bearish count (Chart 2) accommodates.
Note also that DAX is just 0.32% away from making a higher high (see 1145am entry)
Chart 3 (ES) and Chart 4 (SPX) show the squiggles.
(black-ES, green-SPX) impulse up, wave [iv]-down of 3-up likely completed at around the 0.382 fib retrace in the form of a zigzag.
(red-ES, blue-SPX) corrective flat, calls for additional decline
(gray-SPX) impulse up, looks more proportional w/o the overnight data in ES.

[325pm] ES update -
[iv]-down of 3-up in progress on impulse up, trend change on corrective count.

[1145am] How DAX closed -
0.32% away from making a higher high
[7am] ES, DAX, Gold update -
ES - retracing 0.618 of the prior sell-off at the moment, impulse up or double zigzag, see the weekend commentary and Monday's EOD update for discussions on the larger counts.
DAX - "breaking out" of the down TL
Gold - sharp rebound
UST bond - impulsing down
USD - 5-up over (or nearly over with one [v] of C or [v]of 3 push)