Monday, September 12, 2011

Market Timing Update (9/12/11)

[EOD] Stocks -
As mentioned in the 725am entry, time-cycle, wave structure and global relative strength/relative value suggest that a meaningful low in stocks might be approaching.

DAX shows a nice five wave decline that is approaching its end.

As long as the Aug 22nd low in SPX holds, there's a chance for the next advance to make a new recovery high.

A break of Aug 22nd low (the proposed benchmark low, warning) and the Aug 8th low (nominal low, confirmation) would suggest that the sell-off from the nominal low is the initial leg of the decline. Note that INDU came very close to its Aug 22 low, unconfirmed by other indices but worth monitoring.

In either case, the next advance (either as a march to new recovery highs or wave [2]-up or (B)-up rebound will likely exceed current market levels.

Please see intraday charts and Moment of Truth (9/9/11) for details.

[230pm] ES update -
near term bullish count squiggles, see the 2nd chart below

[1250pm] Gold update -
sharp intraday drop
[1145am] SPX, ES update -

[1130am] DAX update -
bottoming (also see 725am entry)
[820am] Bond, Gold update -
Bonds - breakout, potentially 5 of 5 of the post-triangle thrust
Gold - continue to consolidate, potentially a triangle
[725am] ES, DAX update -
Time-cycle, wave structure and relative value point to a potential major low in stocks approaching.
ES - See Moment of Truth (9/9/11) for more discussion
DAX - could have [iv]-up and [v]-down of 5-down coming or could be bottoming right here.