Monday, February 28, 2011

Market Timing Update (2/28/11)

[EOD] Stocks and USD -
Today saw some moderate follow-through in stocks and it is also the month end. The USD index suffered another down tick - tracked by the chart in Wither the Dollar discussion in Bull market, B-wave and Beyond (2/18/11).

Stocks took out the 0.618 retrace early in the trading session and closed ABOVE it. SPX also closed ABOVE the 10-day MA.

There's some relative weakness in Nasdaq indexes as they attempted to fill the large initial gap during the recent "crash".

Regarding wave counts, today's AM high is likely wave [i] or (a) as indicated.
[1140am] ES Squiggles -

[740am] Overnight update (ES, DX) -
Depending on how one labels a potential triangle (red, black) or even a 1-2-1-2 structure, the upside ranges from bearish, moderately bullish to quite bullish. ES has reached a 0.618 retrace. Russian RTSI made new high overnight.

A five wave wedge shaped decline in the USD index - if it does not extend.