Tuesday, March 1, 2011

Market Timing Update (3/1/11)

[620pm, 630pm]ES and Oil update -
ES is about 4 index points shy of making a new low. A potential rebound against the decline in progress. The second chart shows a bullish count (green) and a bearish count (black) on oil (CL)
A decent five wave decline from the rebound high, resulting in a deep retrace of the rebound. Heavy selling pushed SPX to close below its MA20.

On the bullish side, the decline could be a wave [ii] retrace.
[1] an expanded flat (blue) - appears less likely given the deep retrace, especially in YM.
[2] a double zigzag - but the wave structure is ambiguous

On the bearish side, the decline could be
[1] (i)-down of [iii]-down - but no lower low yet.
[2] wave [c] of an [a]-[b]-[c] correction - could truncate in the cash index if there's overnight rebound in the futures.

A squiggle count of today's decline is presented for SPX and ES.

[1045 am, 130pm] SPX squiggles -
A potential expanded flat [ii] or (b)wave.
[740am] Overnight update (ES, DX) -
Stock futures tested the 0.764 Fib overnight.