Wednesday, March 16, 2011

Market Timing Update (3/16/11)

[1000pm]Futures - no change, so far as high as 17.25 points higher than the low to date.
[615pm]Futures -
Another tracking count assuming the bottom does not fall out from here. This one tracks well in ES, YM, and NQ. At the moment, [c]=1.335x[a] which is more acceptable in a corrective structure.

[EOD]stocks -
The thoughts and observations presented in yesterday's EOD update remain applicable. Chart 1 to the right updates the larger structure using March ES contract.

The new development today is that a lower low was registered in many indexes with the exception of RUT, TRAN and MID. This creates interesting features in wave counts and interesting divergence among indexes.

Chart 2 (SPX) and Chart 3 (INDU) show various tracking counts on the cash indexes - the uncertainty lies with where did wave [b]-up or wave [ii]-up ended - that have the low being in today or have at least one more subdivision down. Chart 4 shows the similar situation that ES faces.

The path of least resistance ?
[1250pm]ES update -
[Overnight update] -