Wednesday, February 23, 2011

Market Timing Update (2/23/11)

An impulse wave decline from the recent high likely has ended at today's low, particularly according to the wave structure in the futures (Chart 1). The wave structure of the cash index raises an alternative possibility of a small-degree fifth wave decline yet to play out (Chart 2, red count), although it may not be necessary (Chart 2, blue count).

For those who think that the sell-off is the start of at least a larger correction, the decline to date is most likely wave [i]-down or [a]-down. The sell-off should resume after a counter-trend rebound.

For those who think that the sell-off is done or nearly done, the following counts offer some food for thought. These are immediately bullish (or nearly so) counts in SPX, INDU and NDX. The blue count in Chart 1 on ES presents the same idea.

[1225pm] INDU Squiggles -
[730am] Overnight update (DX,ES) -