Friday, November 12, 2010

MTU Weekend Ed. - Let's Recount II (long term) (11/12/10 Close)

In Let's Recount (11/5/10), we summarized a recount of the stock market wave structure since the March 2009 low, i.e. the hope rally. Aspects of the recount have been discussed in detail throughout October, a period when the market had been threatening to take out the April high.

That particular recount assumes the hope rally is primary wave [2] of cycle wave c of supercycle wave (a), i.e. the EWI count. Its implication is that the market will see fresh lows before any successful attempt at an all time high.

This particular long term count, which will be identified as "[IV]-large flat" (Chart 1 and Chart 2), is the most sensible one before the April high failed to hold. Unlike SP500 and other senior indexes, Nasdaq failed to make a higher high in 2007 nor a lower low in 2009. It makes sense that wave c decline of the potential flat since the Y2K peak has a few more legs.

Once the April high fails to hold and the Nasdaq 100 index has already retraced 96.8% of the decline since the 2007 peak(Chart 3), the perceived likelihood of long term counts since the Y2K peak should have changed. It's high time we highlight the top competing long term counts. The only assumption among these scenarios is that all indexes are in sync in terms of their wave labels at "major" highs and lows. Let's begin.

"[IV]-large flat" - fresh lows before new all time high
Please see discussions and charts above regarding this count. Potential targets for the end of the hope rally are 1352.67-1378.31 and 1222.16-1228.74 in SPX. Please see Let's Recount (11/5/10) for details.

"[IV]-small flat" - most likely fresh lows before new all time high
This count sees the wave structure between the Y2K high and the 2009 low as a complete flat (Chart 4 and Chart 5). There are two variations within this count. The first variation is a zigzag supercycle wave (x) with the connecting cycle wave b likely to be protracted in time. The second variation is a multi-year complex supercycle wave (x) and the April high only concludes the initial primary wave [A].

The predominant implication is that the market will see fresh lows before any successful attempt at an all time high. Notably, in all likelihood, Nasdaq indexes will exceed their 2007 high before any attempt at fresh lows. Other than that, EWP does not offer an a priori structure for this corrective wave (x).

"[III]-unfinished" - new all time highs

This count sees the final stretch of the grand supercycle [III] is still ahead of us. The hope rally is the start of primary wave [5] of cycle wave V of supercycle wave (V).

Its implication is a multi-year bull market to new all time highs (Chart 6 and Chart 7). Please also see The Big Picture (U.S. Stocks) (2/21/10) for long term charts and discussions.

"[IV]-large triangle" - new all time highs before fresh lows
This count sees a multi-year sideways expanding triangle in the senior indexes (Chart 8). To be in sync with the senior indexes, the Nasdaq indexes likely will trace out a zigzag (Chart 9). Its implication is new all time highs fresh lows in at least the senior indexes.