Wednesday, November 3, 2010

Market Timing Update (11/3/10)

[7pm] The most bearish count I can come up with- The nice thing about it is that the count is on the Wilshire 5000, the broadest bunch. Based on this count, a local or major high is in sight. There's some ambiguity regarding whether this afternoon's pump is the actual overthrow (wave e, blue lines) or just wave c (the red line) of the proposed ED, but you get the idea.
[4pm Stocks and USD]
Odds continue to favor further near term advances before either a local high or a major high is in place. The Nasdaq Composite Index exceeded its April high today, following the footsteps of $NDX and $TRAN (Table).

Chart 1 & 2 update the bullish and bearish counts that accommodate further near term advances.

Since the recent upward grind has been accompanied by low volume, overnight pumps, and weak momentum (overlapping waves), let's also look at things with a bearish tilt.
First, perhaps there's an ED instead of the proposed large triangle (see above)? See the red lines in the ES chart (Chart 3).
Second, perhaps the top/high takes place this week based on this time cycle (Chart 4).

On USD, it appears that DX may not have made a fresh low intraday (as td12 has pointed out). So we keep the bullish complex second wave pullback alive for the time being.
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