Sunday, November 28, 2010

Market Timing Update (11/29/10)

[3pm] EOD update
The overlap resulting from the afternoon rebound suggests that the near term decline is likely over. See ES and YM charts at the end.

On the bullish side, today's low (lower low in INDU but not in other indexes) could be the end of minor wave 4 correction. The more bullish profile in the Nasdaq indexes goes well with this interpretation, so far (Chart 1).

Should [c] of 4 be a double zigzag, today's low is (w) of [c] of 4, with the rebound being (x) of [c] of 4.

Also open to the possibility of an ED [c] of 4, but it is too early to call.

For those who are looking for an endless sideways minor wave 4, today's low is likely (b) of [b] (flat or itself a triangle). Once [b] concludes, minor wave 4 can decide on its form, again (flat? triangle?).

Why should one be reluctant to anticipate further sideways movement? If the larger count is correct, minor wave 2 had lasted 3 weeks and the current minor wave 4 has lasted 3 weeks with this week being the fourth week (Chart 2).

Previous real time entries for the day are archived at MTU Real Time.