Friday, June 18, 2010

MTU Weekend Ed - Squiggles Point the Way (6/18/10 Close)

The big picture
Chart 1 updates the current top big-picture scenarios. Except for the count with grey labels which itself is a lower likelihood alternative count, the remaining scenarios all assume the April high is the top of the primary wave [2] rally within a large five-wave decline which started at the 2007 high.

In a nutshell, the grey-labeled count describes the price actions since the April high as an ABC-X-ABC corrective structure with wave X rebound being in progress. The remaining counts describe the June rebound as a second wave at various degrees.

The grey-labeled count calls for fresh recovery highs to come once this large correction ends - note that we still have one more A-B-C sell-off remaining. The remaining counts calls for a sharp sell-off once the current rebound is complete.

Thus, the top bullish and bearish counts all point to lower lows once the current rebound ends.

Squiggles point the way
A closer analysis of the intraday price actions, squiggles, can be enlightening in this case. Chart 2 and Chart 3 present the top two counts for the SP500 cash index and the September SP500 e-mini contract.

If the June 8th low marks the end of wave 1-down (or [i] of 3-down), the rebound since then (which is wave 2-up or [ii]-up of 3-down) is a zigzag [a]-[b]-[c] rally. If wave [c] is an ED, wave 2 is in (or very close to) the final (v)-up of [c] and should end around 1130 which is also where [c]=0.618[a].
If wave [c] is a regular five, one potential target is around 1150 where [c]=[a].

The June 8th low may be wave [b] of a flat 2-up. In this case, the rebound since then is [c] of 2-up. Wave [c] needs to be a five in this case. The impulse count (not the zigzag count) and the projection (about 1130) discussed above also apply - one only needs to lower the wave degree.

Appendix -