Monday, June 7, 2010

Market Timing Update (6/7/10 Close)

[4PM Stocks]
The path of least resistance remains to the downside, given that RUT is right around its 5/25/10 low and SPX is not far behind. Both indices made new closing lows, and closed under the 200-day MA (Chart 1).

My primary counts are that the market is nearing the end of EITHER (i) of [v] of 1-down (the LD count) OR [b] of 2-up or X-up. See discussions below.

There are several pieces of development that are not easily reconciled under one view or the other. On the bearish side, the likelihood of the market being in (iii) of [iii] of 3-down is quite low relative to the LD 1-down count. The following are developments that offer some near term confusion.

[1] Chart 2 and Chart 3 highlight the top bearish and bullish counts in the SP500 cash index. We have a view, but no confirmation of any of these counts so far.

[2] The wave structures have diverged in the June and Sept Emini contracts in June, a major roll month. It makes identifying the top count more difficult as so much has been happening in overnight trading. See Chart 4 and Chart 5.

[3] The NYSE breadth of 2.73 to 1 (decliners/advancers), lower than that in the prior leg of selloff, suggests a potential 5th wave down. However, a squiggle count of the cash index suggests that a 5-wave decline since last Friday's high is nearly complete - likely to be far short of the the lower trend line of the LD wedge - unless the coming low is wave (i) of [v] and a lot more extension is in the cards (Chart 6).

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