Monday, June 14, 2010

Market Timing Update (6/14/10 Close)

Chart 1 summarizes the top big-picture counts. Chart 2 shows a potential impulse is missing its 5th wave, suggesting a higher high tomorrow as part of the advance since the June 8th low.

My preferred count is that wave 2-up (or X-up under the bullish count) is tracing out a flat. The advance since the June 8th low is [c] of 2-up (or X-up), which likely require one final higher high tomorrow.

The top alternative count is that wave 2-up started at the June 8th low. The expected higher high tomorrow is [a] of 2-up. Today's high could be [a] of 2-up, but I think one more squiggle high looks better for a zigzag second wave.

The wild card count is that a wave [iv] triangle of 1-down is still in progress - this is the primary count discussed in the weekend update. I have to reduce the likelihood of this count substantially faced with the fact that the cash index broke above the the June 3rd high by a hair (1105.91 vs 1105.67). However, the June mini did not violate its June 3rd high yet. So the count lives on for now. This count is appealing as it offers nice alternation between [ii] and [iv] and decent channeling and does not have to assume a truncated leading diagonal.
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