Friday, May 7, 2010

MTU Weekend Ed - A Primary Degree Top (5/7/10 Close)

Odds strongly favor the April high in U.S. stocks as the end of this sharp bear market rally. Note that
[1] Thursday’s mini crash (nearly 1000 index points in the Dow in less than two hours, the unconfirmed trading glitch notwithstanding) and Friday’s follow through have demonstrated the underlying vulnerabilities in the market.
[2] The amount of complacency in the financial media after the crash and the forced and after-the-fact trade cancellations by exchanges – is it even legal? – raise the risk that this decline has legs.
[3] The broad market indexes have now dropped below their 2009 year end levels, wiping out the year-to-date gain for a second time in 2010, in just a few days.
[4] There’s a growing list of world stock indexes making lower lows, i.e. dropping below their February 2010 lows. For example, take a look at the Global Dow Index, Australia AORD, Shanghai SSEC, Paris CAC40, Italy MIB, Amsterdam AEX, Madrid IBEX, Switzerland SMI. In addition, the FTSE100 and SP500 are very close to breaking their February lows.

I highlight the three top scenarios (from a EWP perspective) that are applicable for the next few years, share my subjective preference, and invite the reader to assign his/her own probabilities.

Primary Count (very likely) – The selloff which had commenced in 2007 has resumed (or with less likelihood, will resume after a moderate near term higher high). Expect the coming phase of decline to be forceful and to draw markets to below March 2009 lows. Wave projections and classical head-and-shoulders pattern projections point to a bottom around 275 in SP500.

Chart 1 shows the larger picture where the coming phase of decline is primary wave [3] (or P3) of cycle wave c of super cycle wave (a) of grand super cycle wave [IV]. The bear market rally since the March 2009 low is primary wave [2] or P2.

Chart 2 shows a zigzag-(X)-zigzag-(X)-flat structure for P2, which places the P2 top at the April 2010 high.

Alternatively, but with less likelihood, P2 may be tracing out a large double three structure (Chart 3). If so, this bear market rally will climb in a 7-small-degree-wave structure to a final new high before topping. The February low (1044.50 in SPX) should not be broken under this interpretation.

Chart 4(A&B) shows a detailed count of the intraday price action in SPX, which reflects the two possibilities discussed above.

Alternative Count (somewhat likely) – The March 2009 low will hold for the next 1 to 2 years, during which the market makes swings in a wide range before “crashing” down again. The advance since the March 2009 is likely to resume following a pullback which can potentially retest (or feels like retesting) the March 2009 lows. A new all time high is possible but less likely.

Chart 5 shows the larger picture where market has been in super cycle wave (b) of grand super cycle wave [IV] since March 2009. The current pullback is primary wave [B] of cycle wave a of (b).

Alternative Count (even less likely) – The March 2009 low marks the beginning of the final primary degree bull market of the grand super cycle wave [III], i.e. [5] of V(V)[III]. Expect the March 2009 low to hold and the market to march to new highs after the current pullback (as (2) of [5]) is complete (Chart 6).

Appendix-Additional Charts

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