Wednesday, May 12, 2010

Market Timing Update (5/12/10 Close)

Also retesting some near term trend lines -

Bottom line: The current SPX levels are a good place for a turn or at least a pullback.

The advance from the overnight low today best counts as a triple three. Chart 1 shows the corresponding triple-three count with a technically valid (as of 4PM EST) ED at its late stages.

Chart 2 presents the top 3 competing counts. There are some minor changes in the details from the counts discussed in yesterday's update, but these two sets of counts are the same in spirit.

Note the negative momentum divergence in Chart 2.

[Red-P3, Primary] The high on the completion of the ED in Chart 1 is likely the end of wave-2 rebound if 2-up is a double three.

[Green-P3, Alt] If the wave-2 rebound is a zigzag, today's high is likely only (b) of [b] of 2. Expect an expanded/running flat or a triangle as [b] of 2, and then high highs to conclude wave 2-up.

On the small chance that today's advance is instead an impulse wave, the end of 2-up may be here.

[Blue-P2, final 7 waves up to new highs] Today's pre-market low is either (a) of [x] or [x] itself as labeled.
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