The Dow and the SPX are retesting their 2022 downward trend lines following their 2023-Q1 breakout.
One may be able to track the current down-swing maybe a wave TWO/B retrace of the up-swing from October lows when reconciling structures in the Dow and the SPX. (Chart 1 and Chart 2).
Chart 3 presents key tracking options.
Above CHARTS -
ReplyDeleteSame as MTU, I see 5 waves down from the 2021 high to the Jun or Oct 22 lows forming either wave A or a neg 1 down. Question is whether the B (or 2) wave is completed ?
SPX DJIA etc are declining the past week from what so far is three waves up from both the Oct & Dec lows. The advance from the Dec low visually looks like abc advance, but there may be a hidden 5 in it (with its peak being in mid Feb - refer MID) if so the only the early stage of a correction (if wave 4 is unfolding) has started, or alt else if the Oct-Feb rally is an abc then neg impulse has started.
We also note UKX and DAX have also reversed direction the past week with US ones (the SMAC was indicating this prob a week ago) which would confirm some type of prob trend change. They both have so far 3 waves up from Oct (*following 5 down from 2021 - altho UKX has gone higher than 2021 peak). Both of them seem to have 5 waves up from the Dec low and have not run much distance so some type of further decline is possible.
Chart 2 Blue wave 2 3 4 -
ReplyDeleteOf the issue of the LT EW count (see your LT chart on 16 Dec 2022 post on this site) the blue 1 from the 2009 is in 2018 and is very high up. As is wave 2 and 3 and the alleged 4 forming.
Past observations of mkt 5 wave seqs show a wave 1 usually occurs just over or under the old peak prior to the commence of new impulse wave up. Not high up. Refer DJIA 1907-1921 to 1929 where the 1922 peak was just under the 1919-21 ones. And 1919 peak is just over the 1907-09 ones.
Applying this obv to the advance from 2009, wave 1 should be around just under or over the last peak (ie 2007 high).
That would make the 2011 peak wave 1, not 2018.
UNLESS an obscure distorted wave is running.
This is a standard observation seen on most charts - rel position of wave 1 2 3 to the last wave seq peak.
This is why I have a problem with this count on that LT chart.
SMAC Update 2 March Mkt Close -
ReplyDeleteMy SPX & DJIA SMAC indicators are both still declining.
This is consistent with the EW pattern seq I have identified a few weeks ago.
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I note Neely in his latest post is forecasting mkt should turn up on solid wave, based on his unusual pattern seq he uses labeling waves A B C D E etc, and while some seasonal aspects lend support to that view other issues and counts do not, so the situation is a ?
His previous forecasts have been out many times before. Like massive fast correction in early 2022 which was in his Jan 22 forecast that never materialized.
The use of these waves D E F etc. to explain additional waves is wrong in my view - they are simply time regions where higher degree wave and expanded wave sequences are appearing. R N Elliott use to do it too and his associate, Collins, also had problems with it as it causes you to re-label waves. MTU would probably agree ?