SPX closed below the resistance zone following its forth attempt to overcome it (Chart 1)
It is much easier to count the upswing from the December low as a THREE, with potential to develop into a triple zigzag (not required) on a fifth attempt at the resistance zone (Chart 2), than a FIVE (Chart 3) to continue the charge higher following a consolidating pullback (not improbable).
MTU, on chart 1 what do you classify the Jun 22 to Aug 22 rally - a 5 or an abc ? Because that has some relevance to the current count and what this rally since Dec and Oct is.
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My Special Moving Average (SMAC) indicator for DJIA & SPX continues to move up solidly and both will now require a substantial fall over the next few trading days to reverse down.
The key point for the SMAC is since both did turn up* the mkt has not seen a net fall despite the upward move not being spectacular so far. (* SPX up on 26 Jan, and DJIA up on 30 Jan).
The Jun22-Aug22 upswing is likely a three, see this chart
ReplyDeletehttps://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjMpveX8ejbBo-KiQiI13P095_2reoIwqFTEYcVzAjXZ05kjutDFw4D908DwcmFf8sJ-UVnP75Lb8BiG_uWrmpOKeqb0Q6wkSyox3kUYI5ZAV3TVrr6vjW7-PptRMe4_uMVfvR_yodcG-bbEFZM2zMj3nHM0EuXje9n7C7aP_2Jep-ct5hr3ukBsdTe/s850/SPX-20230210-zone.png
Also echo your SMAC key point. It's prudent to be patient and objective in this market.
The SMAC's probability of calling right direction generally is around 85% in the long term, however on the current EW count and pattern just looking at those I suspect the SMAC success on this turn call will be down to 50%.
DeleteMkt at this current timing juncture has to either start moving up convincing or head south.
From my comment before, on it indicating net direction, it might also be useful for range traders who want to know where the price action won't be* for given time period (eg options straddle/strangle-spread strategies between price strike levels - eg since late Jan you would sell put options and buy calls). *Or most probably won't be.
Last weekend I referred to the overall count and the German DAX and the timing setup forming stating -
ReplyDelete"If so there is interesting count at this time. The 5 down was around 10.5 months from the Nov 21 high to early Oct low. Mkt is now just on 4 months from the low making time ratio of 10.5:4, which makes the 4 as being Fib 0.381 in time in 3 waves up (abc?)."
It was 10.8 months to 4 (my measuring error), making it even closer 0.382 in time.
NOTE how the DAX, which has a clearest pattern on this, has reversed the past week. down around 200pts net move. And prob 5 waves up from the Dec low (I didnt even look at the micro wave count when I came up with the ratio as you cannot see it on the 3 & 5 yrs charts I did). This is quite interesting. But this will require more neg followup to be a valid setup.
Err - was 10.4 to 4, not 10.8. Varies with different indexes and where exactly you take the Oct low from.
DeleteFound all this about W D Gann which has only been put up recently ... interesting but overly complicated.
ReplyDeletehttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_Delbert_Gann
Doesnt show the underlying MTF driving it all tho.
The planetary things work beautifully at times but other times not.
Probably because people havent figured out why they change.
Gann was an extreme right-winger and hated paying taxes and is said to have put his mkt winnings into a investment trust in Bermuda so the IRS couldnt rob him. Hence his own personal estate was small at time of death.
Mkt Man
DeleteOVERVIEW - Past Data
ReplyDeleteMy SMAC direction indicator, based on past up signals that did happen which it predicted, should have seen by now a solid rise in the price of the DJIA / SPX indexes by this time being around 16- 20 days since the up signal (av DJIA rise should have been at least 1500 pts) but the prices havent moved, so given that fact of no real movement and the chart pattern picture of the DJIA, I suspect the probabilities now suggest this time perhaps there wont be the usual 3000-4000 pt run. Tho it still has time to run.
But note since the up call in the SMAC on 26 & 30 Jan there has been no net down movement in those indexes. So its has been correct to some extent.