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Saturday, February 18, 2023
MTU Weekend Ed - Sticky (2/17/23 close)
The resistance zone, so far, is not able to repel price with similar strength as before.
My Special Moving Average Calculator for both DJIA and SPX continues to rise however unlike past up cycles in it those cash indexes themselves have not powered up as they usually should have, with the price ranges the past 3 weeks being narrow and contained. This raises a question now as to whether solid up cycle in the cash indexes on this late Jan up signal will happen.
Normally when the SMAC turns up within 3 weeks there is a solid advance in the index.
As I noted last week, this SMAC does seem to tell in most instances what the direction of the mkt won't be (ie if it moves up the indexes resist falling (in net amount)) as we have seen.
The SPX SMAC will need around a 300 point slide in the index to turn down. And DJIA one around a 1300pt slide for its SMAC to turn down. As of next trading session Monday.
Both DJIA & SPX indexes failed to breach the previous early Feb wave peaks (and NYA RUT RUI W5000), however I noted MID did in modest way make higher peak this past week before retracting.
MID (MID Cap 400) has since the Jan low completed min req. for 5 waves up on the minor deg seq, so we might consider that a 5 is also hidden in the DJIA SPX and NYA etc... patterns too. Else its part of a distorted abc or 1-3 or in 4 of a 5 on MID.
The DJIA has formed a sideways cluster flag or sorts the past almost 3 months after a run up from Oct. This pattern we have seen before.
On the recent train derailment issue a news article 2 days ago referred me the railroad stock NSC which has a interesting pattern.
I was looking at the mathematics of my Special Moving Average Calculator (SMAC), and the numbers its crunching are similar to what W D Gann put in obscure text in his course material.
There is text that appears out of the blue in those courses and he doesnt explain it - ie why he's mentioning it at that point, nor elaborates on it, but its there.
Someone in the 1970s who came up with the maths of the SMAC probably has realized what its all about. And its somewhat brilliant and goes to the heart of the mkt gyrations during a yearly cycle.
With todays solid falls on the indexes its relevant to note here my two SMAC indicators are about to turn down if these levels remain.
As per above comments, the indexes (DJIA and SPX) were showing signs of reversal by failing to power up the past 3 weeks.
The DJIA SMAC will turn down tomorrow if by its close then todays close of 33129 pts remains or is lower. It will require a large advance on Thursday to turn up again, and could still occur if a solid rise in the index happens later in the week.
The SPX SMAC will need another 100 point fall tomorrow to turn down. But if it did so it can still turn up again if more rises in SPX follow Thursday and beyond.
These type of frequent SMAC reversals are solely due to the sideways / struggling patterns in the indexes the past few months.
In reviewing the past SMAC curve, its rise the past 3-4 weeks is similar to a previous failed rise (a weak one), so the balance of probabilities are it will turn down soon and continue down if tomorrow's close see same or lower levels. That prev failed rise occurred in late 2021- early 2022 (around the high peak of the mkt) where a similar stalled price action occurred like the past few months.
Note tho there is still a 15% error rate in this indicator.
SMAC Update -
ReplyDeleteMy Special Moving Average Calculator for both DJIA and SPX continues to rise however unlike past up cycles in it those cash indexes themselves have not powered up as they usually should have, with the price ranges the past 3 weeks being narrow and contained. This raises a question now as to whether solid up cycle in the cash indexes on this late Jan up signal will happen.
Normally when the SMAC turns up within 3 weeks there is a solid advance in the index.
As I noted last week, this SMAC does seem to tell in most instances what the direction of the mkt won't be (ie if it moves up the indexes resist falling (in net amount)) as we have seen.
The SPX SMAC will need around a 300 point slide in the index to turn down. And DJIA one around a 1300pt slide for its SMAC to turn down. As of next trading session Monday.
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Charts -
Both DJIA & SPX indexes failed to breach the previous early Feb wave peaks (and NYA RUT RUI W5000), however I noted MID did in modest way make higher peak this past week before retracting.
MID (MID Cap 400) has since the Jan low completed min req. for 5 waves up on the minor deg seq, so we might consider that a 5 is also hidden in the DJIA SPX and NYA etc... patterns too. Else its part of a distorted abc or 1-3 or in 4 of a 5 on MID.
The DJIA has formed a sideways cluster flag or sorts the past almost 3 months after a run up from Oct. This pattern we have seen before.
On the recent train derailment issue a news article 2 days ago referred me the railroad stock NSC which has a interesting pattern.
Sticky ? It also doesnt want to go up either.
ReplyDeleteI was looking at the mathematics of my Special Moving Average Calculator (SMAC), and the numbers its crunching are similar to what W D Gann put in obscure text in his course material.
ReplyDeleteThere is text that appears out of the blue in those courses and he doesnt explain it - ie why he's mentioning it at that point, nor elaborates on it, but its there.
Someone in the 1970s who came up with the maths of the SMAC probably has realized what its all about. And its somewhat brilliant and goes to the heart of the mkt gyrations during a yearly cycle.
TUES 21 Feb 2023 Mkt Close -
ReplyDeleteWith todays solid falls on the indexes its relevant to note here my two SMAC indicators are about to turn down if these levels remain.
As per above comments, the indexes (DJIA and SPX) were showing signs of reversal by failing to power up the past 3 weeks.
The DJIA SMAC will turn down tomorrow if by its close then todays close of 33129 pts remains or is lower. It will require a large advance on Thursday to turn up again, and could still occur if a solid rise in the index happens later in the week.
The SPX SMAC will need another 100 point fall tomorrow to turn down. But if it did so it can still turn up again if more rises in SPX follow Thursday and beyond.
These type of frequent SMAC reversals are solely due to the sideways / struggling patterns in the indexes the past few months.
In reviewing the past SMAC curve, its rise the past 3-4 weeks is similar to a previous failed rise (a weak one), so the balance of probabilities are it will turn down soon and continue down if tomorrow's close see same or lower levels. That prev failed rise occurred in late 2021- early 2022 (around the high peak of the mkt) where a similar stalled price action occurred like the past few months.
Note tho there is still a 15% error rate in this indicator.
MTU, is there any way to upload a chart for this comment area ?
ReplyDelete